The technology is here, but we’re not ready.
Artificial intelligence, the internet of things, robots, driverless cars, drones, 5 G, smart homes and smart offices are all some of the things people think are about to change our lives for the better. Everywhere you turn there are optimistic articles and Ted Talks of how these technologies will fully transform our world just short of the Jetsons and solve global problems like poverty. Industries ranging from food production, health care, transportation, travel, retail to consumer products could be disrupted, most believe for the better. But there is a “long last mile” ahead to get to where the technology can integrate into how we actually live. Despite the advancements of the technology itself, our buildings, roads and infrastructure are in the age of the Flintstones compared to what’s possible and in desperate need of work before all the promise of new technologies can be fulfilled.
For many rural areas, they are still waiting for installation of high-speed internet to catch up to the current digital age let alone leap frogging into the future. If you recall the massive investment required to connect the world with cell phone towers, internet access and fiber optic cable, the same will be true for the infrastructure required for these emerging technologies.
Consider these roadblocks:
Voice recognition and processing technology exists in rudimentary form, but it’s not perfect and far from able to understand complex conversations or meanings. For artificial intelligence and robots to meaningfully start to takeover jobs, reduce costs, and assist us in our daily life, voice technology and recognition is going to have to improve. It will improve but be cautious about which companies control too much of this all-important technology to our future.
Bias in technology is also a big roadblock. Voice recognition pairs up with artificial intelligence. Just as humans have a certain level of bias, so will artificial intelligence. Oversight to ensure bias or misinformation does not cause unintended consequences will be increasingly important. For example, if your car is being driven by voice commands and it doesn’t understand you or can’t properly analyze an outside condition, people can die. Likewise, if a robot is providing health care and it can’t understand you, the wrong treatment could be provided. If there are dangerous biases built in, even unintentionally, the end game will not be what the Ted Talks promise.
Buildings, roads, and air space were not planned for a future of connected devices and robots. For driverless cars to work, we need to restructure our roadways to allow for better signals to the automobile sensors and change the way human driven cars interact with robot driven cars. Our roads are already in need of infrastructure redevelopment as it is to accommodate existing congestion from trucks and cars, let alone to be prepared for the number of sensors needed to safely navigate computer driven vehicles. While some believe the number of vehicles will decrease, there are other points of view that it could mean more cars driving around independent of human drivers. When you hear statistics on the number of accidents by human drivers versus robot drivers, know that you are not comparing apples to apples. We don’t have yet good data sets on robot driven cars because there are not enough of them to make reasonable predictions about how many accidents will occur by robots versus humans. Airways will need to be regulated to accommodate drones and our homes and office buildings will need to be retrofitted to allow for smart technology to adapt to future needs. All of this means a lot of investment, building and development. Likewise, space may become filled with more satellites to provide all of this and need to be regulated and navigated.
5G connectivity is almost here, but a lot of investment and work will be needed to deploy this high-speed connectivity across urban, suburban and rural areas. Without this capability, the new technology will overload existing systems. However, this too comes with potential unintended consequences. Some believe the proliferation of 5G could inhibit satellites that are used to govern our existing world (i.e. weather forecasts and communication).
Globalization versus localization. The internet connected computers and everyone around the planet, expanding a global economy and connectivity. But this next generation of technology has more of an impact on local communities and lives. The next gen is about powering devices in our homes, offices and communities. The requirements to physically service local economies and communities will increase. Supply chains into local areas may become more important in delivering services and servicing the devices. Companies will need to think locally about expansion.
Work force skill development. Humans will be needed to design and build the infrastructure, and to oversee it to ensure it is working properly. Oversight jobs will include privacy protection, bias protection, cybersecurity, among others. Expect to see this as an emerging industry.
Get excited about these new horizons, but don’t believe all the hype. Understand the roadblocks, as well as the opportunities. Look for opportunities in the problems and unintended consequences. And, pay attention to policy. Vast new regulations and policies will be needed to govern these new technologies as privacy and data become the price everyone will pay for these conveniences. Your company needs to develop a clear point of view on these issues to guide decision making. If you don’t take time to talk about the social and ethical issues being created, you can’t make smart decisions about the future.
If you are interested in a keynote, workshop or facilitated discussion on emerging technologies, future trends, cybersecurity or cultural shifts for your next board meeting or executive retreat, contact me at jwolfe@consultwolfe.com or 513.746.2801.
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